Jump to content
TedderVision
Sign in to follow this  
Bruce

American elections

Recommended Posts

Would make sense to have an omnibus thread for US elections. 

 

My first comment has to do with the Alabama primary today. While I haven't been following the race all that closely, I was surprised today. You all think Moore can really win? If so, how? Is Trump's support of Strange a benefit in the deep red state?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alabama is a deeply conservative state, so a hard-right evangelical is something that appeals to them. Strange represents both an increasingly unpopular establishment(he was endorsed by McConnell and Trump), and was appointed by Robert J. Bentley, the previous governor of Alabama who resigned in disgrace earlier this year. 

Plus Brooks refused to endorse either candidate, so that means that his supporters, who are also anti-establishment like Moore, might break more in favor of him than Strange.

Moore's also been endorsed by Chuck Norris. Bet that helps. xD

 

 

Edited by Jonathan
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I voted in the primaries as Republican ticket just so I could vote if there was a run-off. Unfortunately he got the R ticket. Jones is close in the pollings, and for the first time I've seen more people out and campaigning for a dem candidate

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RCP currently has Moore leading Jones by just six points. If the Democrats can pull off an upset here, this would dramatically change their odds in the Senate in 2018. They currently need three seats to retake it, but so far only two seem to be winnable(Nevada and Arizona). A Jones victory would not only give them that third seat but also prove that Democrats have a chance in the other deep red states such as Texas, Mississippi, and maybe even Nebraska and Tennessee(Bob Corker retiring probably would help in the last one).

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now that I can talk about this safely without anyone taking advantage of this in Zeitgeist, thought I'd take a look at the three races that @Bruce highlighted.

The NYC mayoral election and the NJ gubernatorial race should be landslides for the Democratic candidates. While a Quinnipiac poll found de Blasio's approval rating to be just 50% back in July, New York is still a solidly liberal city and he should cruise to re-election. Polls show him leading Malliotakis by around 30-45 points. 

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, since has served as Lieutenant Governor under Christie, Guadagno is being dragged down by his 14% approval rating. RCP has Murphy winning by 14.4%.

The real race to watch is in Virginia. I think some parallels can be draw to 2016 here. Northam was the establishment favorite and fended off a strong progressive challenge in the primary, while Gillespie nearly lost to a Trumpist candidate in Corey Stewart. According to RCP, Northam started with an 8.4% lead after the primary, but he has failed to create excitement and has made some missteps along the way, especially in recent weeks, after a controversial ad portraying a Gillespie voter as a Confederate sympathizer running down minority children, and a flip flop on sanctuary cities that may depress immigrant turnout and anger the progressive base. Gillespie, for his part, has tried to win back Stewart supporters, by using coded language and dog whistling, such as in an ad designed to raise fears about the MS-13 gang/attack Northam and McAuliffe for being soft on them and allowing undocumented immigrants in, or attacking McAuliffe over his policy of giving released felons the right to vote again, as well as pledging to protect Confederate statues on Virginia. 

So this will be a very interesting race and may very well be a barometer of how popular Trumpism is in America. One can hardly call Gillespie anti-establishment; he was even chairman of the RNC from 2003 and 2005. But if he wins, mainstream Republicans may very well decide that co-opting parts of Trump's platform will work for them. And if Northam loses, Democrats may have a lot of soul-searching to do before the midterm elections to prevent another embarrassing defeat like this. Going into Election Day, RCP has Northam up by 3.3, but Gillespie could very well pull off the upset here.

Edited by Jonathan
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Northam ended up outperforming his polls by 5.6%, which is a good sign for Democrats in 2018.

Meanwhile, in Alabama, Roy Moore has been accused of initiating a sexual encounter with a 14 year old girl when he was 32. Several top Republicans have called upon him to step down, but it's unclear whether he can be replaced just a month before the vote. There are rumors that Luther Strange may try to run a write-in campaign.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am predicting right now that once Moore loses, the accusations will go away just as quickly as they came. 

 

I have a great suspicion that the accusations are political more than factual. It is waaay to convenient that they happen to come when he wins a highly contested primary and a highly contested general election in Alabama when the dems want to swing the state. The coincidence is way to convenient. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Shiggy said:

I am predicting right now that once Moore loses, the accusations will go away just as quickly as they came. 

 

I have a great suspicion that the accusations are political more than factual. It is waaay to convenient that they happen to come when he wins a highly contested primary and a highly contested general election in Alabama when the dems want to swing the state. The coincidence is way to convenient. 

IDK about that, I think the timing has more to do with this #metoo stuff than with a special election in Alabama. But I certainly understand your doubt; I'm usually very hesitant to accept a "coincidence" as well. However, I think this Hannity interview at this timestamp was what convinced me that there could be something to this. That's just not you answer the question if the whole point of you being on the show is to deny the allegations.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, Bruce said:

IDK about that, I think the timing has more to do with this #metoo stuff than with a special election in Alabama. But I certainly understand your doubt; I'm usually very hesitant to accept a "coincidence" as well. However, I think this Hannity interview at this timestamp was what convinced me that there could be something to this. That's just not you answer the question if the whole point of you being on the show is to deny the allegations.

 

Yea I remember this interview. I listened to it that day......what about it made it seem real/ in this interview? the mother permission part?

It seems to me he categorically denied it. I think tripping up about him saying a throwaway phrase about asking mother's permission is pretty out there in spite of the fact that the accusation and the behavior of which he is accused is way out of character for him. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And to show that it is not a partisan thing........I said the same thing about that gay Seattle mayor who was accused of diddling a few boys in the 80's and 90's. And sure enough.....most of those accusations disappeared after he announced that he would not run for mayor again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Shiggy said:

Yea I remember this interview. I listened to it that day......what about it made it seem real/ in this interview? the mother permission part?

It seems to me he categorically denied it. I think tripping up about him saying a throwaway phrase about asking mother's permission is pretty out there in spite of the fact that the accusation and the behavior of which he is accused is way out of character for him. 

The mother permission part was certainly weird, but what got me was Moore repeatedly denying it with qualifiers like "Generally" and  "I don't remember anything like that." To me, that's not a categorical denial.

That's also not to say that Roy Moore is the monster that some make him out to be. He's from a different generation, I have no doubt that he believes he respects women -- but that also doesn't mean that all women feel respected by him. And that really gets to the larger questions around the #metoo movement. Is there a moral equivalence between the actions of Roy Moore, Harvey Weinstein, John Conyers, and Al Franken? Are they all the same? If not, where's the line drawn?

I also find it interesting that our own personal perspectives tend to shape our opinions on these stories. We're more likely to be skeptical of accusations against those that we admire while never questioning the accusations against those we despise. We may be able to recognize this in ourselves and to force ourselves to be more objective, but the vast majority of people don't go through this step.

12 minutes ago, Shiggy said:

And to show that it is not a partisan thing........I said the same thing about that gay Seattle mayor who was accused of diddling a few boys in the 80's and 90's. And sure enough.....most of those accusations disappeared after he announced that he would not run for mayor again.

I haven't seen any evidence that the accusations against Ed Murray have "disappeared." They're no longer in the news cycle, yes, but it's not like his accusers have recanted or anything. The difference is he's no longer a public official nor seeking office. Ed Murray is as unfit for office as Roy Moore in my humble opinion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Shiggy said:

Oh I thought 1 of them recanted after he resigned. 

It's possible, I just couldn't find anything after a quick search. I think one of the lawsuits was temporarily postponed, but that was back in the summer well before his resignation. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Bruce said:

It's possible, I just couldn't find anything after a quick search. I think one of the lawsuits was temporarily postponed, but that was back in the summer well before his resignation. 

 

maybe that is what I was thinking of.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To prove that no one knows what's going on in Alabama:

Emerson Polling released a poll that showed Moore up by nine this morning.

Hours later, Fox News released a poll that showed Jones up by ten.

Then, as if that wasn't enough, Monmouth released a poll showing the race as a tie.

 

Edited by Jonathan
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Moore is going to win. Although, the very fact that we're talking about this really shows just how extraordinarily close this race is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Jonathan said:

To prove that no one knows what's going on in Alabama

SurveyMonkey did a poll and weighted in 10 different, but completely sensible, ways. The results ranged from Jones by 9 to Moore by 10

slide1-whos-really-ahead.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I put little faith in polls. Each poll is slightly skewed.....and even if accurate in the data reported, it fails to take into account those who did not answer (silent majority) because they were afraid of backlash from their point of view. That happens this last presidential election. That is why all the major polls were wrong. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Shiggy said:

I put little faith in polls. Each poll is slightly skewed.....and even if accurate in the data reported, it fails to take into account those who did not answer (silent majority) because they were afraid of backlash from their point of view. That happens this last presidential election. That is why all the major polls were wrong. 

This brings up an interesting phenomenon to me. Why would a person vote for someone when they're embarrassed to admit it? I agree that it does happen, but I just don't really understand it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Bruce said:

This brings up an interesting phenomenon to me. Why would a person vote for someone when they're embarrassed to admit it? I agree that it does happen, but I just don't really understand it.

I don't know if I would say "embarrassed". I would say more afraid. To be fair to the silent majority (of which I was one), the smug and sometimes even downright hostile attitude of liberals towards anyone who did not agree with them (calling anyone who disagreed with them nazis or "deplorables") along with a refusal to listen to any point of view that was not pro-Hillary made it uncomfortable if not downright dangerous to admit being anything other than pro-Hillary much less pro-Trump.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
You are commenting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×