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President Trump at a rally in West Virginia

PRESIDENT TRUMP RULES OUT 2020 RUN

In a statement to the nation, President Donald Trump has announced his intention not to seek a second term as President of the United States.

Elected in 2016 with 304 electoral votes over Hillary Clinton, President Trump has been revered by grassroots activists as the one who would drain the swamp and restore the people's voice to Washington D.C., almost four years on and many are wondering if he's actually done that. Elected as President with no link to politics other than donations and a rather back and forth political allegiance between Republicans, Democrats and a brief stint in the Reform Party, he was seen as the end result of an America embracing populist politics. He is one of the few U.S. President's to have little to no Government experience or previous tenure in office.

No one thought that President Trump would win the Republican Primary, yet he emerged as a front-runner, beating established Republicans like Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and the conservative Ted Cruz. He was selected as the Republican nominee after securing victory in 41 primary contests across the country, running on a platform of what many perceived to be divisive politics, moving away from some standard Republican positions of the time. His nomination signaled a political shift in the Republican Party, their base had elected Donald Trump knowing these views, which left many such as President George W. Bush and other Republican standard bearers by the wayside in terms of having much influence or sway over the selection of a nominee. 

Packed with controversial and otherwise uncanny statements, President Trump declared that he would stop people of Islamic faith from entering the United States, announced an intention to build a full wall between the United States and Mexico, and take on China for their anti-U.S. policies in recent years regarding trade, security and North Korean relations. Some would argue that he has done this and some would argue that he hasn't. In one of his first executive actions, he banned the entrance and asylum from a number of Muslim majority nations in the Middle East, which was later upheld by the Supreme Court.

Plagued year on year by the existence of the Mueller investigation and losing the House of Representatives in the latest midterms, have for sure frustrated the President and other high-profile Republicans, who have lost unified Republican Government so early. Premonitions of the situation Republicans left President Obama in after Republicans regained the House of Representatives in 2010, in what has been considered one of the greatest electoral victories in history, at least for the Republican Party. 

A failure to repeal Obamacare and a failure to build a wall on the Mexican border has left two of Trump's signature campaign promises broken, the former thanks to the late Senator John McCain. A key takeaway for the Trump Presidency, like the last Republican Administration (aside from the War in Iraq and Afghanistan) would be major tax reform along with the recently signed Rebuilding American Infrastructure Act. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed in 2017, much to the ire of Congressional Democrats. Republican leaders such as Paul Ryan finally got their dream tax cut, which was off-put by President Obama in the White House from 2009-2017. 

As the oldest elected President in American history, President Trump stated that, at his age, it wouldn't be suitable or responsible for him to be at the country's helm for another four years. This means that the Republican field has been opened for a primary campaign, which would have otherwise been unlikely with a sitting Republican President. Political commentators are already touting the likes of Paul Vang and Rick Sharp to file their campaign and seek the Republican nomination.

President Trump will join the two member club of one-term President (still alive), alongside President Carter and President George H. W. Bush*.

*, for the purposes of in game, President Bush has not passed away. 

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Democratic Presidential Primary Polling

September 2019

Quote

National

  1. Macmillan: 18%
  2. Travere: 15%
  3. Whitaker: 14%
  4. Pinnacle: 12%
  5. Bowers: 11%
  6. Brown: 9%
  7. Fitzpatrick: 9%
  8. Williams: 7%
  9. Storm: 5%
Quote

Iowa

  1. Travere: 21%
  2. Macmillan: 15%
  3. Bowers: 13%
  4. Whitaker: 13%
  5. Pinnacle: 10%
  6. Fitzpatrick: 9%
  7. Brown: 7%
  8. Williams: 7%
  9. Storm: 5%
Quote

New Hampshire

  1. Macmillan: 19%
  2. Travere: 14%
  3. Whitaker: 14%
  4. Pinnacle: 12%
  5. Fitzpatrick: 11%
  6. Brown: 10%
  7. Williams: 9%
  8. Bowers: 8%
  9. Storm: 3%

 

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Republican Presidential Primary Polling

October 2019

Quote

National

  1. Vang: 63%
  2. Sharp: 37%
Quote

Iowa

  1. Vang: 58%
  2. Sharp: 42%
Quote

New Hampshire

  1. Vang: 67%
  2. Sharp: 33%
Quote

South Carolina

  1. Sharp: 53%
  2. Vang: 47%

 

 

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Democratic Presidential Primary Polling

October 2019

 

Quote

National

  1. Macmillan: 19%
  2. Travere: 14%
  3. Bowers: 13%
  4. Whitaker: 12%
  5. Brown: 11%
  6. Gonzalez: 10%
  7. Pinnacle: 9%
  8. Williams: 8%
  9. Storm: 5%

 

HML Dylan Macmillan (NY) @Macmillan

A well run campaign and the HML remains the frontrunner. But with such a passionate field that certainly makes you a target as the other candidates try to meet that 15% threshold. Watch your back. 

Governor Eric Travere (IN) @Dogslife

Your campaign remains strong, but if you hope to leapfrog Macmillan you need to talk a lot more about what makes Travere a unique candidate. When there is such a crowded and close field like this, you need to carve your own lane or risk fading into the background.

Congressman Ken Bowers (WV) @Sovereign

The Fitzpatrick endorsement gives you some temporary attention . . . don't waste the opportunity! The town hall is going well, keep it up.

Andrew Whitaker (FL) @Doomhammer

This is perhaps the worst advice of the night, so I apologize in advance. This is perhaps the most professional campaign that could be run. But you need some gusto to lead this pack. There's no passion behind the campaign . . . yet.

Congressman Vinny Brown (OH) @ILDem

A strong debate performance and strategic PRs means you're starting to gain the attention of moderates. Keep it up.

Daniela González (TX) @Jellybeans

 A veteran player starting in the middle of the pack can be dangerous. However, you have some challenges ahead of you. You've staked out some fairly conservative positions while running for Plains Governor. Will you continue to "stand on principle" as a pro-life Democrat even if it costs you the nomination?

Congresswoman Mary Blythe-Pinnacle (AR) @PinnacleAR

You came into this race with good name recognition, but in a crowded field like this the voters want to see more from you.

Olivia Williams (CA) @Williams

The debate performance didn't hurt you too badly, so keep on the grind. There's a long campaign ahead of you.

Congressman Osiris Storm (NY) @Osiris Storm

You shouldn't be too discouraged yet, you still have plenty of time to continue to communicate what your campaign is about. Keep it up. 

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    ((OOC: Meant to post this here earlier))

    Quote

    Iowa Straw Poll

    This should be treated as if the primary were occurring today to give you folks a firm idea of where you stand right now without any margin of error. Remember that in the Republican primary it's strictly proportional in Iowa whereas for the Democrats you have to meet a 15% threshold in order to receive any delegates from the state. I'm not going to give any super detailed strategy analysis yet, but I'm betting those of you who study your campaign's schedule compared to your opponents can learn a lot moving forward. What are they doing that you're not?

     

    Quote

    Iowa Straw Poll (Republicans)

    1. Vang: 53.72%
    2. Sharp: 46.28%
    Quote

    Iowa Straw Poll (Democrats)

    1. Macmillan: 17.30%
    2. Gonzalez: 16.83%
    3. Travere: 15.31%
    4. Brown: 14.06%
    5. Bowers: 12.36%
    6. Whitaker: 11.03%
    7. Williams: 6.24%
    8. Pinnacle: 5.50%
    9. Storm: 1.37%

     

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