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Jonathan

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Everything posted by Jonathan

  1. Going to be out for the whole week next week, so first domestic scenarios won't come until later.
  2. Democrats need to do better as recruiting new players. Every round so far has ended in either a landslide 2020 victory for the GOP or the DNC Chair getting arrested for donating to a terrorist organization
  3. The state you fundraise in is just for RP apparently and doesn't affect how much you get.
  4. Re: Net Neutrality, while it is true that it's one of the less-talked about issues of the day, it does draw broad support from both Democrats and Republicans, not just "far-left SJWs."
  5. Limited Internet until Sunday
  6. Out until Sunday afternoon.
  7. (If I were actually President I'd take much more time to do an actually good list) Chief of Staff - James G. Stavridis State - Jon Huntsman Jr. Treasury - Ben Bernanke Defense - Jim Mattis Attorney General - Robert Mueller Interior - Lisa Mangat Agriculture - Brian Schweitzer Commerce - Charlie Baker Labor - Richard Trumka Health and Human Services - Jerome Adams Housing and Urban Development - Eric Garcetti Transportation - Elon Musk Energy - Tom Steyer Education - Gaston Caperton Veterans' Affairs - Tammy Duckworth Homeland Security - John R. Allen
  8. I was saying LOL at @Shiggy's post, not your comment.
  9. Well, AP just called it for Jones. Thank you Alabama.
  10. To prove that no one knows what's going on in Alabama: Emerson Polling released a poll that showed Moore up by nine this morning. Hours later, Fox News released a poll that showed Jones up by ten. Then, as if that wasn't enough, Monmouth released a poll showing the race as a tie.
  11. Should have stayed in the EU. My guess is May will step down after the UK ends up getting the short end of the stick when the deadline passes in 2019.
  12. Could we get the full story on the whole Venezuelan ambassador thing now?
  13. We could also run some werewolf/mafia games on this board, if you guys want. I'd be happy to host them
  14. As a Californian, glad our state has usually been accepting of the LGBTQ+ community. (Except for Prop 8 ).
  15. I honestly don't get why the government had to spend $122 million on a glorified poll when they could very well have just seen the results that polling companies showed. IMHO, they should have either made it a straight up binding referendum or just started debating it in Parliament already. But then again, I know nothing about Australian politics, so perhaps this whole postal survey business might make more sense to someone down under.
  16. Well, the results are in, and the Australian people have spoken. From Wikipedia:
  17. Northam ended up outperforming his polls by 5.6%, which is a good sign for Democrats in 2018. Meanwhile, in Alabama, Roy Moore has been accused of initiating a sexual encounter with a 14 year old girl when he was 32. Several top Republicans have called upon him to step down, but it's unclear whether he can be replaced just a month before the vote. There are rumors that Luther Strange may try to run a write-in campaign.
  18. Now that I can talk about this safely without anyone taking advantage of this in Zeitgeist, thought I'd take a look at the three races that @Bruce highlighted. The NYC mayoral election and the NJ gubernatorial race should be landslides for the Democratic candidates. While a Quinnipiac poll found de Blasio's approval rating to be just 50% back in July, New York is still a solidly liberal city and he should cruise to re-election. Polls show him leading Malliotakis by around 30-45 points. Meanwhile, in New Jersey, since has served as Lieutenant Governor under Christie, Guadagno is being dragged down by his 14% approval rating. RCP has Murphy winning by 14.4%. The real race to watch is in Virginia. I think some parallels can be draw to 2016 here. Northam was the establishment favorite and fended off a strong progressive challenge in the primary, while Gillespie nearly lost to a Trumpist candidate in Corey Stewart. According to RCP, Northam started with an 8.4% lead after the primary, but he has failed to create excitement and has made some missteps along the way, especially in recent weeks, after a controversial ad portraying a Gillespie voter as a Confederate sympathizer running down minority children, and a flip flop on sanctuary cities that may depress immigrant turnout and anger the progressive base. Gillespie, for his part, has tried to win back Stewart supporters, by using coded language and dog whistling, such as in an ad designed to raise fears about the MS-13 gang/attack Northam and McAuliffe for being soft on them and allowing undocumented immigrants in, or attacking McAuliffe over his policy of giving released felons the right to vote again, as well as pledging to protect Confederate statues on Virginia. So this will be a very interesting race and may very well be a barometer of how popular Trumpism is in America. One can hardly call Gillespie anti-establishment; he was even chairman of the RNC from 2003 and 2005. But if he wins, mainstream Republicans may very well decide that co-opting parts of Trump's platform will work for them. And if Northam loses, Democrats may have a lot of soul-searching to do before the midterm elections to prevent another embarrassing defeat like this. Going into Election Day, RCP has Northam up by 3.3, but Gillespie could very well pull off the upset here.
  19. RCP currently has Moore leading Jones by just six points. If the Democrats can pull off an upset here, this would dramatically change their odds in the Senate in 2018. They currently need three seats to retake it, but so far only two seem to be winnable(Nevada and Arizona). A Jones victory would not only give them that third seat but also prove that Democrats have a chance in the other deep red states such as Texas, Mississippi, and maybe even Nebraska and Tennessee(Bob Corker retiring probably would help in the last one).
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